What US Midterm Elections Mean For Climate Policy And Public Health

James Dineen

© Courtesy of New Scientist A couple arrives to vote at the Anthem Center in Henderson, Nevada during early voting on October 24, 2022. Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

On November 8, American voters will decide whether Democrats will retain their slim majority in both houses of Congress. That, in turn, will determine whether President Joe Biden's administration can continue its agenda over the next two years. The midterm elections, which occur in the middle of each presidential term, are also expected to change the balance of power in state governments, with races in each state's legislature and 36 gubernatorial elections.

Here's how the election results could affect three important science issues: climate change, reproductive health, and policy around COVID-19.

Climate change

The Inflation Reduction Act, passed by Congress this August, is the federal government's first major climate legislation and is a key achievement that Democrats touted during the midterm debates. The more than $300 billion he is investing in climate and energy initiatives will accelerate the race to decarbonize the United States and other countries, and measures in the bill are expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. US to 44% below 2005 level by 2030.

It is now law, but congressional oversight will determine how it is applied, said Corey Schroedt of the Niskanen Center, a Washington-based right-wing environmental policy think tank. Democratic control of Congress would give the Biden administration more leeway to advance clean energy and other projects supported by the bill, as well as climate priorities on the international stage. Republican majorities in both chambers could complicate matters. "This policy becomes the focus of response, removal and investigation efforts," Schroedt said.

If Republicans win control of both houses of Congress, they will have the ability to legislatively repeal the law through a process called budget reconciliation, but Schrodt says that is unlikely. "It's always a bumpy road, and industries can react badly to feedback," he says. He also says he's seen "nuggets" of climate-related proposals on Republican platforms related to things like faster cleanup to extract important minerals for batteries and renewable energy. "I don't think that having a Republican majority means the complete end of the fight against climate change," he says.

Offer September. Joe Manchin of West Virginia to speed up energy projects, including transmission lines needed to degas the grid, was abandoned in September amid opposition from Republicans and progressive Democrats. Since then, authorizing the reform has become a pressing issue for Democrats, who fear that the Republican-controlled Congress will accelerate fossil fuel development more than clean energy projects. State elections will also affect interstate transmission line projects, among other climate and clean energy priorities.

access to abortion

The 2022 midterm elections will be the first US election in 50 years in which access to abortion is not a constitutionally guaranteed right.

The issue moved to the center of American politics in June when the US Supreme Court ruled in Roe v. Wade: The landmark 1973 case that guaranteed a woman's right to an abortion before the fetus is viable. In Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health, the court's conservative majority, argued that abortion is not a constitutionally guaranteed right, leaving the issue to the discretion of state governments or Congress.

In the months since the decision, there have already been signs that doctors are delaying life-saving care for women because of concerns about lawsuits, and medical organizations such as the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists continue to stress that “ abortion is an integral part of the evidence. - on the basis of health protection.

Read more: How overturning Roe v. Wade in the US will increase the number of deaths of women

After the Dobbs decision, Democrats in Congress tried to pass legislation guaranteeing abortion rights in every state; two of these bills passed the House of Representatives but did not receive the necessary number of votes to enter the Senate. Some Republicans in Congress have pushed for statewide abortion restrictions, such as a bill introduced by a South Carolina senator. Lindsey Graham introduced a ban on most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy. Other Republican leaders said abortion access decisions should be left to the states.

States have already made changes. Abortion is now prohibited in most cases in thirteen states. Five states have passed laws banning abortions after a certain gestational age . Ten states have bans or more restrictive laws that have been blocked by courts as legal disputes arise.

"Battles to protect access to abortion and all reproductive health services have been and will continue to be fought at the state level," said Elizabeth Nash of the Guttmacher Institute, a reproductive health research and advocacy group.

Beyond race, California, Michigan and Vermont have ballot measures to protect abortion rights and support people who want abortions outside of their state. Voters in Kentucky (where abortion is already banned in all cases) and Montana (where state courts have blocked a 20-week abortion ban) will decide on additional anti-abortion measures.

A recent study found that abortions increased by 11% after the Dobbs decision in states with slightly restricted abortion procedures, suggesting that people are moving between states to access care. The number of abortions in the country decreased by 6 percent.

COVID-19

According to data compiled by the New York Times , more than a million Americans have died from Covid-19, millions more are showing symptoms of prolonged Covid, and the virus is still killing more than 300 people a day in the United States. In addition, an array of new variants should lead to a wave of new infections in the coming weeks.

Despite its lingering impact, the pandemic has played a much smaller role in midterm politics than it did in the 2020 election. Democrats have not focused on the issue. And Republicans focused more on complaints about past shutdowns and mandates.

However, the outcome of the election will decide who will be in power in the third winter of covid-19, who may see a rise in cases with new options and easing of restrictions, not to mention the impact of the rise in syncytial virus cases. non-respiratory disease in the US and the possibility of a "twin epidemic" of influenza. Whoever is in power can also prioritize funding for health facilities, vaccination initiatives, testing, and other public health measures. Republican control of Congress could also mean investigations into the origins of the virus and the federal response to the pandemic under the Biden administration, STAT reported.

There is evidence that counties that vote Republican have more deaths from Covid-19 than counties that vote Democratic, largely because of different attitudes toward vaccination and other mitigation measures. If the federal public health emergency declared in 2020 ends in 2023, which Politico reports is the White House's working assumption, that will leave more decisions about how to deal with Covid-19 in hands state governors and legislators who are elected in November. There are 8.

Polls point to a Republican victory ahead of the final weekend of midterm campaigning in the US.